James TylerJun 19, 2026, 02:34 AM ETCloseJames Tyler is an ESPN editor for soccer.

It has been an incredible first week at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the superstars showing up -- Lionel Messi tying the all-time men's World Cup goals record by scoring his first hat trick in this competition, Erling Haaland scoring twice in his tournament debut, Kylian Mbappé adding two of his own to become France's all-time leading men's scorer -- and the smaller nations making an impact, too. Australia stunned Türkiye to rival the U.S. for top spot in Group D, Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 for their first win at a World Cup since 1990, and tiny Cape Verde, in their tournament debut, held powerhouse world No. 1 Spain to a 0-0 draw in their first game.

Could you ask for much more from the action on the pitch? We think not, but what do these early results tell us about the front-runners and the also-rans?

As we did 100 days out, 30 days out and with 48 hours to go, we're looking at how our global reporters feel about the tournament from a contenders vs. pretenders perspective after every team's first game. We asked our panel of 20 reporters to rank their top 15 favorites from No. 1 (meaning "the trophy is theirs") to No. 15 ("the cool outsider's pick for a tournament shock") and compiled their ballots into the collective ranking below.

- O'Hanlon: World Cup overreactions after one round of games - Hamilton: How Scotland's Tartan Army took over the World Cup - World Cup 2026: Fixtures, results and all coverage

Editor's note: Voting was concluded before Thursday's games involving Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Qatar, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czechia and South Africa kicked off. Performances in their second round of group stage games will be reflected in our next Power Rankings, which will launch after that round is complete on June 23.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 3 - Group I games: defeated Senegal 2-0; vs. Iraq (June 22, Philadelphia); vs. Norway (June 26, Boston)

For the first time since we began these rankings back in March, we have a brand-new No. 1 team! Take a bow, Les Bleus, for doing something that seemed impossible before the World Cup began.

Our voters can't get enough of Mbappé & Co. following their smooth 3-1 win to open play in Group I, with 13 of 20 first-place votes, having picked up just six in our previous ballot, and it's not hard to see why: After a muddled first half in which France struggled to click, Mbappé picked up two second-half goals (including an otherworldly effort from range in injury time) to become France's all-time men's top scorer as they racked up eight shots on target to Senegal's one, which Ibrahim Mbaye converted in the 95th minute.

Mbappé looks highly motivated, Michael Olise's red-hot form at the club level with Bayern Munich has continued (one assist, four chances created) and France's defense limited Senegal to just 0.10 xG over the 90 minutes. Tougher tests await -- notably the June 26 showdown with Norway and a little-known guy named Haaland that could decide who wins the group -- but this is exactly how you'd want to open a World Cup after an agonizing runner-up finish in 2022.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 4 - Group L games: defeated Croatia 4-2; vs. Ghana (June 23, Boston); vs. Panama (June 27, New York/New Jersey)

Look out for Thomas Tuchel's free-flowing Three Lions, everyone: A comfortable win over Croatia to open group play has impressed our electorate, garnering England three first-place votes (up from zero with 48 hours to go) and our biggest upward move at the top end of the rankings.

With so many questions marks coming into the World Cup based on the stars Tuchel left at home -- Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Harry Maguire, Adam Wharton -- and some of the squad inclusions such as Marcus Rashford, Djed Spence and Jordan Henderson, we got all the answers we needed following a fun afternoon in Dallas. Harry Kane scored twice (including a penalty that was saved before Kane converted a retake), Jude Bellingham got the go-ahead strike two minutes into the second half, and the oft-maligned Rashford added a fourth late on following a fine passage of attacking play.

Some calamitous defending made it tighter than England fans would have expected as Croatia twice pulled level in the first half -- shoutout to Martin Baturina for one of the nicer strikes in the competition so far -- but it's clear this England team has come to the World Cup intending to attack rather than string together a ton of sterile possession.

It's still too early to gauge whether it's coming home, but it's certainly looking at flights.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 1 - Group J games: defeated Algeria 3-0; vs. Austria (June 22, Dallas); vs. Jordan (June 27, Dallas)

As has been the case at previous World Cups in the modern era, Argentina's chances always hinge on the form, fitness and mood of the talismanic Lionel Messi. So far in 2026, it's working, too, as Messi scored all three in an easy victory over Algeria to begin their campaign. Messi's first World Cup hat trick also pulled him level with Germany's Miroslav Klose for the most goals in men's tournament history (16), so we can expect to see more fireworks from him before this party is over.

The formula is simple: Give Messi free rein around the top of the box to jog and work into space where he can receive the ball, square up to goal and shoot, with the likes of Lautaro Martínez, Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister creating room for the mercurial No. 10 with their constant energy and movement in and out of possession. Two of his goals came from just that situation, with Messi receiving the ball to feet and finishing with venom.

It's still too early to say if better teams will be as generous to Messi as Algeria were, and you expect a creaky defense with Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez to be tested by more assertive opponents, but if Messi is scoring nearly every time he touches the ball, does it really matter?

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 2 - Group H games: drew 0-0 vs. Cape Verde; vs. Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta); vs. Uruguay (June 26, Guadalajara)

Our voters have definitely lost some confidence in La Roja following their stunning scoreless draw against 67th-ranked Cape Verde, though Lamine Yamal (who made a lively 19-minute cameo) is fully fit and should be ready to effect better results moving forward.

Also in the minds of our electorate is the fact that Spain historically start slowly in these competitions; they've opened with a win at a World Cup in four of 16 tournament appearances. Since winning it all in 2010, they've had only three actual wins at the World Cup, exiting in the group stage in 2014, losing in the round of 16 on penalties in 2018, and getting bounced on penalties again in the round of 16 four years ago.

But history is just that -- history -- and far too much has been written about how good this Spain side is prior to the World Cup for it to look so uninspired in its first game. If Spain are the favorites to win this, we're still waiting to see it.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 10 - Group E games: defeated Curacao 7-1; vs. Ivory Coast (June 20, Toronto); vs. Ecuador (June 25, New York/New Jersey)

Death, taxes and Germany being quietly good: This might well be true again after their performance on Sunday, scoring early and often against tiny Curacao to firmly introduce themselves as a force to be reckoned with at this World Cup. Truth be told, they've endured a couple of wobbly tournaments since winning it all in 2014, but if Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz and Joshua Kimmich continue to hum and purr like they did in their opener, I think our voters will push them even higher in our next edition.

Tougher tests await in Ivory Coast and Ecuador -- two physical, aggressive pressing sides that pushed each other to the limit in Sunday's 1-0 win for the Ivorians -- but Julian Nagelsmann & Co. don't look especially flustered thus far.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 6 - Group C games: drew 1-1 vs. Morocco; vs. Haiti (June 19, Philadelphia); vs. Scotland (June 24, Miami)

Our voters no longer have the Selecao in the top tier of contenders after their 1-1 draw with Morocco in New York/New Jersey, but they are certainly the "best of the rest" in our standings. The major mitigating factor that keeps them so high in the hearts and minds of our experts is that of the top teams, Brazil arguably had their hardest game first as Morocco (ranked seventh in the world) dug deep and the draw was a fair result for two strong teams.

Brazil did fall behind early, which was mildly concerning, but Vinicius Jr. opened his World Cup account with a slick finish after latching on to Bruno Guimarães' clever pass, and manager Carlo Ancelotti showed he's not just a pretty face with some astute halftime changes. The Selecao locked things down in the second half, and they have a chance to really show their attacking prowess against Haiti up next.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 7 - Group C games: drew 1-1 vs. Brazil; vs. Scotland (June 19, Boston); vs. Haiti (June 24, Atlanta)

The Atlas Lions retain their position as the highest-ranked team from Africa in our latest Power Rankings thanks to a strong showing against Brazil and a pair of gentler opponents up next. There's a lot to like in this team, too, with fullback Achraf Hakimi back to full fitness, Ismael Saibari (0.7 xG in 89 minutes by himself) the ideal foil at center forward, and Brahim Díaz creative and inventive on the right side of midfield.

Despite not having the smoothest run-up to the World Cup, they look primed to cause some trouble once we hit the knockout stages.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 8 - Group F games: drew 2-2 vs. Japan; vs. Sweden (June 20, Houston); vs. Tunisia (June 25, Kansas City)

Their 2-2 draw with Japan was held in high enough regard to keep them firmly in the thick of our Power Rankings, though it will concern Oranje fans that their usually reliable defense, anchored by Virgil van Dijk, couldn't hold a lead down the stretch as Japan leveled in the 88th minute. Our voters picked up on this and don't seem convinced, with just two of 21 ballots placing the Dutch inside the top six; however, they benefit from having more proven game changers and a sense of stability not every team in this middle tier can boast about.

Sweden's big win over Tunisia means that Ronald Koeman's side no longer controls its destiny in terms of advancing to the round of 32, but if Netherlands get the kind of industry from Ryan Gravenberch and Frenkie de Jong in midfield that they got on Sunday, they can still make a deep run if the permutations and bracket break in their favor.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 17 - Group H games: defeated Paraguay 4-1; vs. Australia (June 19, Seattle); vs. Türkiye (June 25, Los Angeles)

Welcome to the big show, USMNT! Having been an afterthought in the three previous Power Rankings, receiving little but charity votes, the power and potential of Mauricio Pochettino's side couldn't be denied by our experts following its emphatic four-goal display against Paraguay last Friday.

Folarin Balogun carried his club form (19 goals, four assists for Monaco) into the USMNT first team with two well-taken goals in the first half, the Malik Tillman-Weston McKennie-Tyler Adams midfield gave Paraguay nightmares with its pressing and positioning, and the full-back pairing of Antonee Robinson and Alex Freeman offered endless energy and industry on both sides of the ball. Just what you want to see as fan of the co-hosts, right?

The one concern is the fitness of "Captain America" Christian Pulisic, who shrugged off a rather quiet 2026 at the club level to notch an assist in the first half, lifting U.S. hopes, only to be withdrawn with a calf injury during the interval. He has practiced sporadically this week away from the team and is still considered day-to-day for Friday's clash with Australia; Pochettino will need him if the Americans are to build on this early potential.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 5 - Group K games: drew 1-1 vs. DR Congo; vs. Uzbekistan (June 23, Houston); vs. Colombia (June 27, Miami)

Well well well ... not the most auspicious of starts for a team that's arguably the "best of the rest" toward the top of our rankings. The dilemma around Cristiano Ronaldo -- should he play or not? -- will only intensify following a 1-1 draw in Houston that was fully earned by their opponents. Ronaldo, with just 25 touches and three off-target shots in 90 minutes, can't get any worse from here ... right?

Our voters were never completely convinced by this side despite the abundance of talent that manager Roberto Martinez can call upon -- Bruno Fernandes! Vitinha! João Neves! Nuno Mendes! Rafael Leão! Pedro Neto! -- but as long as it all revolves around CR7, we will continue to question Portugal's ability to make a deep run. Their defending also needs to be sharper, which should happen if Rúben Dias recovers from a minor injury to slot back in alongside Renato Veiga at center back.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 31 - Group H games: defeated Iraq 4-1; vs. Senegal (June 22, New York/New Jersey); vs. France (June 26, Boston)

Haaland told ESPN before the World Cup that it was a dream fulfilled to get Norway back into the tournament after nearly 30 years away, and he made it clear in their opening game that he's keen to enjoy a long stay in the U.S., Canada and Mexico this summer. Two superb goals in a big win over Iraq, with 1.98 xG + xA across the 90 minutes, was a signal of intent that should give pause to the other teams in Group H.

Just don't be too seduced by the scoreline: Norway made heavy work of things until two goals in the final 15 minutes, including an own goal with virtually the last action of the game, made the margin look comfortable. A much truer test of their bona fides -- and their wobbly back line -- will come against Senegal next week.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 13 - Group K games: defeated Uzbekistan 3-1; vs. DR Congo (June 23, Guadalajara); vs. Portugal (June 27, Miami)

After missing the 2022 edition, Los Cafeteros made a winning return to the World Cup against debutants Uzbekistan in Mexico City, with Luis Díaz leading the way with a goal and an assist in a 3-1 win. Yet their opponents, 50th in the latest FIFA rankings, were no pushovers, making it 1-1 around the hour mark in a vastly improved second half before Diaz and Jáminton Campaz tallied to take all three points.

Diaz is undoubtedly this team's dynamo in the attacking third, displaying the kind of work rate that made him undroppable at Bayern Munich last season, but he'll need help if Colombia are to make a deep run. James Rodríguez, hero of their 2014 and 2018 World Cup campaigns, didn't influence the game much on the right flank and looked every day of his 34 years before being subbed off with 15 minutes to go. Gustavo Puerta, a potential breakout player in midfield, controlled the tempo so well at times you'd think this was his fifth World Cup, not his first.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 18 - Group F games: drew 2-2 vs. Netherlands; vs. Tunisia (June 20, Monterrey); vs. Sweden (June 25, Dallas)

No superstars, no problem for the Samurai Blue -- at least not yet, anyway. Their campaign seemed doomed before it began when three of their household names -- forwards Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma, defensive midfielder Wataru Endo -- were left out of the squad after failing to recover from long-standing injuries.

And yet such is their resilience that they battled back from 1-0 and 2-1 down to earn a quality draw with Netherlands in their Group F opener. Daichi Kamada was dynamic in midfield and set up Japan's second goal, Takefusa Kubo was a menace at the Dutch defensive end, and Keito Nakamura was tireless on both sides of the ball as their left-sided wing back. They got stronger as the game went on, and their reward is a winnable game against a Tunisia side that conceded five against Sweden and fired its manager the next day.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 9 - Group G games: drew 1-1 vs. Egypt; vs. Iran (June 21, Los Angeles); vs. New Zealand (June 26, Vancouver)

One of this World Cup's emergent themes involves big center forwards making things happen by virtue of being big and powerful against cowed defenders, and Belgium's Romelu Lukaku did his part by helping to engineer the equalizer in their 1-1 opening-game draw with Egypt. Less than 30 seconds after coming on as a second-half sub, the veteran forward pressed Mohamed Hany to turn the ball into his own net under pressure following Thomas Meunier's teasing cross -- the very definition of "impact sub."

Kevin De Bruyne looked like his vintage self in attacking midfield, and Youri Tielemans dictated play in the middle of the pitch, but it's still hard to see where Belgium are going to get enough goals even with Lukaku contributing in the opener. Egypt were largely untroubled in the first half and even took the lead.

- Official FIFA Rank (June 11): 14 - Group H games: defeated South Africa 2-0; vs. South Korea (June 18, Guadalajara); vs. Czechia (June 24, Mexico City)

And last but not least, another of the host nations breaks into our top 15 ranking for the first time in four editions! El Tri got off to a flier in the World Cup's opening game, winning 2-0 over 60th-ranked South Africa, though they largely played in second gear as Bafana Bafana picked up two red cards.

Julián Quiñones profited from some slack South Africa play out of the back to open the scoring after just nine minutes, and Raúl Jiménez got on the score sheet with a second-half header amid a tidy display of classic center forward play. Mexico's all-action style is designed to pressure opponents into mistakes, but our voters still aren't convinced at this stage, with only three of 21 ballots rating El Tri inside the top 10.

Our voting panel included Bill Connelly, James Olley, Julien Laurens, Sam Marsden, Rob Dawson, Armando Neria, Ryan O'Hanlon, Mark Ogden, Lizzy Becherano, Beth Lindop, Ed Dove, Tom Hamilton, Damian Didonato, Alex Kirkland, Gabe Tan, Joey Lynch, Jeff Carlisle, Gab Marcotti and Cesar Hernandez.

Source: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49094186/fifa-world-cup-power-rankings-spain-brazil-germany-usa-mexico-england-argentina